The Cautious Merchant

A merchant could invest in silk, spice, or grain. Silk offered the highest profit if the eastern roads stayed open, but total ruin if bandits blocked them. Spice was moderate either way. Grain was steady but dull.

His partner urged silk. “The roads have been safe for years!”

The merchant chose grain. Not because he expected the worst, but because he could not afford it. Grain’s worst case was tolerable. Silk’s worst case was catastrophe.

“I don’t play to win the most,” he said. “I play to ensure the worst that can happen is something I can survive.”