The Merchant at the Fork

A spice merchant reached a fork in the road. Left led to the highland market, right to the coastal bazaar. His rival, carrying different goods, would also choose one.

The merchant’s cinnamon happened to fetch three times the price in the highlands, where it was scarce. At the coast, cinnamon was merely ordinary.

If his rival went to the highlands, both would compete — but the merchant’s cinnamon still sold better there than it would have at the coast. If his rival went to the coast, the merchant had the highland market to himself.

He didn’t need to scout his rival’s movements or guess his rival’s reasoning. The highlands paid more for his particular goods in every combination of choices. The decision required no cleverness. It required only looking at the numbers and noticing that one column was higher in every row.