The Timber Auction

A stand of timber went to auction. Fifty lumbermen bid, each estimating the wood’s value based on a walk through the forest.

The winning bid was far above the average estimate. The winner celebrated — until he began cutting and realized the timber was worth roughly what most bidders had guessed.

He had won precisely because his estimate was the most optimistic. And the most optimistic estimate, in a room of fifty, was almost certainly too high.

Winning the auction was itself evidence that he had overpaid. The prize was a punishment disguised as a victory.